The article you might be talking about Alex is this one written by John Zogby. I had not watched polls closely until this year, but Zogby seems to be by far the guy to trust. His article I linked above, as well as his "explanation of polling" article on the sight, should be required reading for politically-inclined people.

I don't even a little bit believe the New Jersey thing. The problem with polling "likely voters" which even Zogby does cause there's no better way to do it, is that you don't get any youth at all. Not one person under 30 has been called by any major pollster in the United States, because not one of us has been able to vote for enough elections to become a likely voter. And yet, with Kerry leading Bush 4 to 1 among 18-24 year olds.... If no one turns out to vote then it's a mute point I guess, but I have a candle of hope that this will be the year where youth finally makes good on the promise of the 27th Amendment.

posted by john owens-ream   [3:39 PM]

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